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Stabilizing economy augurs well for global growth

Rebound of trade, investment, manufacturing, and tourism boom key positives

By OUYANG SHIJIA | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2024-05-13 07:39
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Employees work on the production line of a tractor manufacturer in Luoyang, Henan province. ZHANG YIXI/FOR CHINA DAILY

"I think the economy is stabilizing," said Ben Simpfendorfer, a partner at consultancy Oliver Wyman. "The foundations are there for recovery."

He said China's economy still enjoys favorable conditions and factors, given a potential soft landing of the US economy and the stronger growth in the global economy. "I think exports are the primary positive factor."

While China's growth target of around 5 percent for this year seems challenging, Simpfendorfer said he believes the goal is "still achievable if the real estate sector begins to stabilize".

He added that "the real estate sector will remain a drag", and the correction in real estate investment and sales will take at least another six to 12 months.

"There's good reason for policymakers to maintain an easy interest rate and credit policy this year," he said.

To further bolster China's economic recovery, Simpfendorfer advocated that policymakers should increase fiscal spending in key fields such as health and education.

"That might provide consumers, especially low-income ones, with greater certainty in their household finances and greater confidence to start to spend more on other types of goods and services," he said. "To see a stronger recovery this year, we need to see consumer spending accelerate."

Huang Yiping, dean of Peking University's National School of Development, said that the nation's economy is relatively stable. "There is hope that the economy may continue to improve, given that the government will expand its fiscal spending and provide more support to economic growth in the coming months.

"The US economy looks like it is experiencing a soft landing, which should be positive for our external economic environment and exports."

Huang called for more efforts to boost economic recovery and stabilize employment, which will bolster consumer sentiment and increase incomes for households.

He added that the government is allocating more resources to support social welfare, pension and healthcare systems, trying to revitalize rural areas, as well as supporting households in replacing their consumer durables with new ones. "These subsidies, spending and so on would be positive for consumption."

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