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Commission predicts 7% GDP growth
( 2002-04-26 14:12 ) (1 )

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) predicted on Thursday that China will achieve a 7 per cent growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) this year while maintaining price stability.

The prediction was based on a review of the country's fine economic performance in 2001 -- 7.3 per cent GDP growth, as well as the discernible signs of a "gentle and reasonable recovery" of the regional and global economy, ESCAP said.

ESCAP's annual economic and social survey of Asia and the Pacific 2002, which was publicized on Thursday in Beijing, said China remained one of the world's fastest-growing economies and largest foreign direct investment (FDI) host last year despite the global slowdown.

The slowdown was largely due to strong expansionary policies, including high government spending on infrastructure development projects.

According to ESCAP, the developing economies of the Asia-Pacific region are expected to post a better trade and growth performance in 2002 by achieving economic growth of 4.2 per cent, compared with 3.1 per cent last year.

And the world economy this year is estimated to go up 0.2 per cent over last year's 1.3 per cent.

Wang Huijiong, vice-president of the Academic Committee of the State Council Development Research Centre, expressed "modest optimism" for the country's predicted growth rate, which coincided with the previous official forecast and was similar to last week's estimate of 6.9 per cent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its annual Asia Development Outlook 2002 released earlier this month, also forecast that China's GDP will grow 7 per cent and 7.4 per cent in 2002 and 2003, respectively.

But Wang said on Thursday that the global economic performance, especially the expected recovery of the US economy, remains a crucial prerequisite for China to achieve its economic goals.

The Chinese Government will continue its active fiscal policies this year to achieve the growth rate, Wang said.

Such a positive fiscal policy, however, is to be gradually given up to ensure a long-term stable macroeconomic performance, Wang said, quoting previous remarks of Finance Minister Xiang Haicheng.