第89屆奧斯卡獎將于本月26日在美國洛杉磯舉行，今年的奧斯卡獎依舊將眾星云集，提名演員各個實力強勁，特別是在最佳男主角等獎項上的競爭異常激烈。那么各大獎項究竟會花落誰家呢？從一項最新研究的結論推測，卡西?阿弗萊克（《海邊的曼徹斯特》）似乎比瑞恩?高斯林（《愛樂之城》）更有可能成為奧斯卡贏家。

Winning an Oscar isn't all about acting ability.
贏得奧斯卡獎似乎并非全靠演技。

While the awards claim they recognize the top performances from around the world, a new study has found that you're more likely to win an Oscar if you're an American acting in a film that portrays American culture.
雖然奧斯卡獎評委會聲稱他們選出的是世界各地演技最佳的演員，但一項新的研究發現，如果你出演了一部描述美國文化的電影并且你是一名美國人，那么你更有可能獲得奧斯卡獎。

And, the same applies to London's BAFTAs, with British actors more likely to take home an award.
上述情況也適用于倫敦的英國電影學院獎，英國演員更容易拿到這一獎項。

Researchers say the trend suggests viewers are more likely to perceive a performance as 'truly brilliant' if they are members of the same social group as the actor.
研究人員表示，該趨勢表明，如果觀眾和演員屬于同一社會群體，那么觀眾更容易認為演員的表演“十分出色”。

It can be seen, perhaps most famously, in the case of Leonardo DiCaprio, who finally won a long-awaited Oscar last year for his role in The Revenant, which follows the story of an American frontiersman.
從萊昂納多?迪卡普里奧身上就可以看出這點，他應該是最有名的一個例子。去年小李子終于憑借《荒野獵人》中的角色贏得了盼望已久的奧斯卡獎。這部電影講述了一個美國拓荒者的故事。

Leonardo DiCaprio poses with the Oscar for Best Actor, The Revenant

But, the trend also stretches back throughout the years.
不過，這種趨勢可以追溯到多年以前。

In 2014, Matthew McConaughey won an Oscar for his role in Dallas Buyers Club, and Jennifer Lawrence took an award home the year before for Silver Linings Playbook.
2014年，馬修?麥康納因《達拉斯買家俱樂部》中的角色贏得奧斯卡獎，而詹妮弗?勞倫斯前一年憑借《烏云背后的幸福線》把奧斯卡獎捧回家。

Matthew McConaughey is shown on left with his award for his role in Dallas Buyers Club. On right, Jennifer Lawrence poses with her award for Best Actress, Silver Linings Playbook.

Daniel Day-Lewis won an Oscar in 2008 for his role in There Will be Blood.
丹尼爾?戴-劉易斯憑借《血色將至》中的角色贏得2008年的奧斯卡獎。

Daniel Day-Lewis poses with his award for Best Actor In A Leading Role for his performance in 'There Will Be Blood'

The findings come from a new study published in the British Journal of Psychology.
這些調查結果來自《英國心理學雜志》刊登的一項最新研究。

The team investigated a total of 908 merit prize winners: 97 winners and 383 nominees for the Oscars, and 97 winners and 331 nominees for the BAFTAs.
該研究團隊共調查了908位優秀獎項入圍者：97位奧斯卡獎得主和383位奧斯卡獎提名者，以及97位英國電影學院獎得主和331位英國電影學院獎提名者。

Overall, they found that US actors dominated the awards, claiming over 50 percent of the prizes across the Oscars and BAFTAs.
就總體而言，他們發現美國演員包攬了這些獎項的大多數，在奧斯卡獎和英國電影學院獎的得獎比例均超過50%。

But, they also noted a trend within social groups.
但是，他們還發現了社會群體內部的一個趨勢。

When the performer and judge shared membership within a particular social group － for example, being American – the actor was more likely to win.
當演員和評委是同一特定社會群體中的成員時——例如，同為美國人——這個演員獲勝的可能性更大。

American actors were found to win 52 percent of all BAFTAS, but 69 percent of all Oscars.
研究發現，美國演員得獎數占英國電影學院獎總數的52%，但在奧斯卡獎的占比為69%。

And, British actors won just 18 percent of all Oscars, but 34 percent of BAFTAs.
另一方面，英國演員得獎數只占奧斯卡獎總數的18%，但在英國電影學院獎的占比為34%。

The researchers say nationality made a difference among those who actually won awards.
研究人員稱，國籍對那些真正贏得獎項的人起了很大的作用。

American actors received 67 percent of Oscar nominations, but won 78 percent of the awards.
美國演員獲得67%的奧斯卡獎提名，但該獎項得獎者有78%是美國人。

And, British actors received 31 percent of all BAFTA nominations, but won 42 percent of the awards.
此外，英國演員在英國電影學院獎所有提名者中占31%，但該獎項得獎者有42%是英國人。

Subject matter played a role, too, according to the researchers.
據研究人員表示，電影題材也發揮了一定影響。

In the Oscars, Americans who performed in films about non-US culture accounted for just 26 percent of the award winners.
在奧斯卡獎得主中，出演非美國文化題材電影的美國演員僅占26%。

But, those who performed in films about American culture made up 88 percent of the winners.
但是，有88%的奧斯卡獎得主是在美國文化題材電影中表演的演員。

英文來源：每日郵報
翻譯&編輯：董靜
審校：丹妮